Within this report, we look at the policy framework that can drive this rapid shift, and explore the technologies and lifestyle changes we can expect to see in the next two decades if these policies are followed. We are confident we can maintain high levels of well-being while staying within a strict carbon budget, eliminating our reliance on fossil fuels and providing access to energy for everyone.

‘Instead of forecasting from within existing attitudes, trends and approaches, we ‘backcasted,’ looking at where we need to be, then seeing what policies and technologies we need to get there’ CAT Development Director Paul Allen said.

‘We are confident that if Britain treated this as the serious emergency the climate science is saying it is, we could eliminate the need for fossil fuels within 20 years.’

Policy recommendations

The most effective international policy framework to dramatically reduce emissions is Contraction & Convergence (C&C).

C&C defines a ‘safe’ global carbon budget, or cap, and within it an equitable portion for Britain. The system allows global per-capita emissions to equalise, while the global cap on emissions is reduced. These emissions rights are tradable, encouraging developing countries to bypass fossil-fuel powered industrialisation and move towards renewable energy sources.

To distribute Britain’s national budget under the C&C framework the reports recommends a system of Tradable Energy Quotas (TEQs) as being the most effective and efficient way of descending the “fossil-fuel staircase”. TEQs are an electronic carbon allowance scheme which distributes domestic allowances equally per person free of charge and auctions the remainder to business.

The quotas are reduced every year in line with the C&C targets, starting from our current level down to zero in 20 years, providing a strong incentive to reduce energy demand and bring renewable energy online.

‘Island Britain’ – halving energy demand by 2027

But what will life be like in 20 years, if these policies were put in place?

To prove it is possible to complete our objective under the harshest constraints, we explored an ‘Island Britain’ scenario, a 20 year energy model, with the conditions that all of the nation’s energy and food must come from within our borders and coastal waters. Of course, in reality, trading energy and food with neighbouring nations would make reducing our emissions easier and cheaper, but if we can theoretically show it’s possible without integration we start from a position of strength and not weakness – our ongoing research will develop models which integrate Britain with Europe and the World.

Halving Britain’s energy demand while still maintaining high levels of well-being requires significant lifestyle changes. Domestic flights would become almost non-existent after several years of the TEQs framework and international flights would be severely reduced. Moreover meat eating would have to be reduced, as it requires a very large amount of land and energy to produce animal feed. Under the ‘Island Britain’ model, much of this land could be used to produce renewable wood fuels.

Some of the biggest energy savings could come from a wholesale switch to electric transport. Electric motors are 4-5 times more efficient than the internal combustion engines And would compliment the electrical generating renewable technologies perfectly.

Buildings represent 75% of Britain’s demand for heat; but with new builds insulated and designed effectively; this would reduce to almost zero. The strategy cuts total energy demand from buildings by 38%. It also recommends widespread retrofit of insulation, and a programme of demolition and replacement of the worst-performing buildings.

Britain’s industry could also halve its energy use over the next 20 years, given the right financial and policy drivers.

Powering up – filling the energy gap

Wind provides the greatest proportion of electrical energy in the scenario, at around 45% of annual demand. The scenario recommends installing around 47% of the DTI’s estimated wind resource for Britain; a total of 474TWh of capacity, 90% offshore.

Wave power, and tidal power captured with a series of tidal lagoons could also provide large amounts of our electricity. Other renewable technologies, such as solar thermal, solar photovoltaic and hydro all contribute to the electricity supply in our 2027 scenario.

Once reduced through efficiency measures, the domestic heating demand could be met with heat pumps and combined heat and power (CHP) plants running on biofuels such as wood chip.

Balancing a renewable-powered grid

The biggest engineering challenge when planning a renewably-powered grid comes when balancing supply and demand.

Several proven technologies can help smooth the dips in production and peaks in demand. We recommend an array of intelligent domestic appliances that ‘listen’ to the grid, large flow batteries and new pumped storage systems in existing hydro-electric sites. Another emerging technology is ‘vehicle to grid’ (or V2G) – electric vehicle batteries could also discharge back into the grid when supply is low.

Wind turbines and other technologies would also be spread around the coast of Britain, increasing reliability of supply.

The future

Rather than a prescribed path, the ‘Island Britain’ scenario should be seen as a demonstration of Britain’s potential. This scenario is just one possible outcome of the policies the report recommends.

Many of these systems and technologies are emerging, and require huge investment and research programmes. But what are the alternatives? Continuing with ‘business as usual’ will have an even bigger impact on our society, as climate change speeds up and oil availability decreases.

zerocarbonbritain is not the first report of its kind from the Centre for Alternative Technology. In 1977 CAT collaborated with the renewable energy experts of the day to produce the UK’s first Alternative Energy Strategy (AES).

The practical influence of AES 1977’s solutions was limited - the problems it addressed were only dimly and partially perceived. Thirty years on, the world urgently needs a solution – the policies and technologies outlined within zerocarbonbritain are here now, we only lack the political leadership to put them in place.